When someone says they have bought a lemon, they usually mean they have bought a load of rubbish. The phrase was introduced by the ad agency, Doyle Dane Bernbach in 1960 when they featured an advert with a problematic car. The idea of the problematic car being a lemon was picked up by economist George Akerlof in a paper in 1970 entitled "The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism". It is this we want to talk about today.
Akerlof's original theory was applied to the used car market where he argued that sellers of cars usually have more information about the quality of the vehicle than people who want to buy one. He said that there are four kinds of cars: new cars and used cars and good cars and bad cars. The bad cars are the “lemons”. Sellers of cars may not disclose problems with the car, leading to a situation where buyers are wary of purchasing used cars altogether or only willing to pay lower prices, assuming the worst about their quality (the "lemons" problem).
This paradigm is not unusual. There are many markets in which sellers have more knowledge than buyers. This is hardly surprising. The seller has either made the product or specialises in selling it. No wonder they know more about it than the poor, ignorant buyer. In such a situation the buyer is understandably suspicious of the seller. When this is the case, the seller needs to figure out how to build confidence in their offers by providing warranties, certifications, or third-party inspections. These are all attempts to signal the quality of their products and soften the information lop-sidedness.
Akerlof's model is relevant across different industries, including:
1. Financial Services: In the insurance sector, insurers often present policies with complex terms and conditions. The small print is the trap for buyers and we have all been there. Improving transparency and providing clear information would help bridge this gap.
2. Healthcare: Patients often lack the expertise to evaluate the quality of medical services or treatments. Healthcare providers must offer transparent information about treatment options, potential risks, and outcomes to build trust. Again, the dreaded small print in the terms and conditions is where the problem lies.
3. Technology: Customers in the technology sector may struggle to assess the quality and reliability of products before purchase. Building a strong brand, offering free trials, money-back guarantees, and comprehensive product documentation can aid in informed decision-making.
4. Education: Prospective students face challenges in evaluating the quality of educational programs and institutions. Providing accurate information about graduation rates, accreditation status, and alumni success can assist them in making informed choices.
While Akerlof's theory sheds light on information asymmetry, it assumes rational behaviour from both buyers and sellers. However, buyers' decisions can be influenced by various factors beyond economic considerations, such as ignorance, social norms or cognitive biases. . We may not understand how iPhones are made or the differences between one offer from a manufacturer and another, however we are influenced by the decisions of others. If millions of people buy an Apple phone or a Samsung phone, the brand takes over and hopefully protects us from buying a lemon.
Despite initial scepticism, Akerlof's theory eventually was recognised, leading to him being awarded the Nobel Prize - 31 years later. The lemons problem continues to serve as a valuable framework for understanding the implications of information asymmetry in many markets. It provides an important framework for manufacturers and suppliers on how they should use a strong brand, guarantees, testimonials, and reassurances to build confidence.