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Economic forecasts are rubbish. You would think that if we can fly people to the moon and put a vehicle on Mars we can figure out when the next recession will hit us. The problem is we make judgments on the future from what has happened in the past. This leads to a huge amount of bias. When we are in the middle of boom times, people can’t imagine that there will ever be a recession. Equally in the middle of a recession people seem to think we will stay in it for ever. Common sense tells us that the good times can’t go on forever. They never have done. The big question is “when will the good times end?”. A model developed by the National Bureau Of Economic Research has made me think. Apparent